報告摘要

n??6月份USDA的報告顯示，2018/19年度全球棉花產需缺口為107.9萬噸，全球棉花供給偏緊。

n??2018/19年度國內棉花產量下降，消費增加，期末庫存下降，產需缺口擴大。

n??2018年全國棉花實播面積4900.1萬畝，同比減少80.7萬畝，減幅1.6%，其中，新疆實播面積為3457.0萬畝，同比增長2.2%。

n??PX產能釋放較大，供給寬松，基本面相對較弱，PTA供需基本平衡，價格彈性較小，關注下游聚酯需求。

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?? 棉花及PTA上半年行情回顧

?? 棉花產業供需狀況分析與預測

?? 總結及2018年下半年行情展望

?? 策略推薦

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Abstract

n??The latest USDA’s report shows that the global cotton production shortfall will be 1.079 million tons in 2018/19. The world cotton market will become tight.

n??Domestic cotton production will decline in 2018/19, with increase in consumption and drop in ending stocks, leading to the expansion of production and demand gap.

n??In 2018, the actual sowing area of cotton in China was 49 million mu, 807,000 mu or 1.6 percent less than one year ago. Among them, Xinjiang’s actual sowing area was 34.57 million mu, increased by 2.2 percent year-on-year.

n??PX will have a large capacity release, with loose supply and relatively weak demand. The supply and demand of PTA is basically balanced, and the PTA price elasticity is small. Meanwhile, polyester downstream demand should be concerned.

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?? Market review of cotton and PTA in 1H18

?? Analysis and forecast on supply and demand of Cotton Industry

?? Summary and market outlook for 2H18

?? Strategy recommendation

20180709前海期貨—蛋白粕產業鏈半年報—供需格局改善疊加成本支撐 蛋白粕走強可期.pdf