報告摘要

n? 2017/18榨季全球食糖供給寬松，印度等國增產幅度較大，下半年國際糖市出口壓力較大。2018/19榨季全球食糖供需平衡將相對收緊，庫存消費比下降。

n? 根據中國農業農村部門的預估，2018/19榨季國內食糖產需缺口為452萬噸，低于2017/18榨季的469萬噸，假設在進口、拋儲和走私量沒有明顯變化的情況下，國內食糖供給來年將更加寬松。

n? 根據全國蘋果套袋減產的統計數據看，2018年新果減產幅度在35%-40%。新年度蘋果供給較緊。

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?? 食糖和蘋果上半年行情回顧

?? 食糖和蘋果供需狀況分析及預測

?? 總結及下半年行情展望

?? 策略推薦

Abstract

n? In 2017/18, the global sugar supply was sufficient. Countries such as India largely increased their production, and worldwide sugar market will face a greater export pressure in 2H18. The global balance of sugar supply and demand will be relatively tight, with the stocks-to-use ratio falling in 2018/19.

n? According to the MARA’s forecast, the domestic sugar production shortfall will be 4.52 million tons in 2018/19, which may be lower than the amount (4.69 million tons) in 2017/18. Assuming that there is no significant change in import, storage and smuggling, the domestic sugar supply will be more sufficient in the coming year.

n? According to the statistics, the yield reduction will be 35 percent to 40 percent in 2018, which indicates a tight supply of apple in the coming year.

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?? Market review of sugar and apple in 1H18

?? Analysis and forecast on supply and demand of sugar and apple

?? Summary and market outlook for 2H18

?? Strategy recommendation

20180709前海期貨—農副產品產業鏈半年報—食糖弱勢難逆轉 蘋果減產價可期.pdf