報告摘要

n? 全球與國內銅精礦供應偏寬松，冶煉廠加工費有望上升。電解銅產量以及進口量較去年同期都有所增加，但下游需求并未有明顯增加，電解銅價格走勢震蕩偏空。

n? 鋁錠國內庫存基數大、國外庫存偏低的情形將使鋁價外強內弱的格局得以延續。

n? 國內鋁錠生產成本上移，庫存開始下降，疊加下半年采暖季限產，鋁價有可能觸底反彈，但整體走勢仍偏弱。

?

?? 基本金屬上半年行情回顧

?? 銅供需格局趨向寬松，下半年銅價震蕩偏空

?? 鋁價外強內弱格局還將延續

Abstract

n? Global and domestic mines are in sufficient supply, and TC/RC is expected to rise. The output and import of copper cathodes have increased compared to the same period of last year, but the demand of copper cathodes hasn’t improved yet, and the price of CU will fluctuate downwards in the second half of the year.

n? Domestic stock of aluminum ingots being abundant and LME stock of aluminum running low will lead to the continuing trend of weak SHFE AL price and relatively strong LME AL price.

n? Since the production cost of domestic aluminum ingots is increasing and the domestic stock is beginning to decline, and the domestic output of aluminum ingots will be constrained in the fourth quarter of 2018 due to the implementation of environmental protection policy, the price of AL may bottom up in the second half of this year, but overall the AL price will remain weak.

?

?? Market review of nonferrous metals in 1H18

?? Copper supply-demand is loose, and the price of CU will fluctuate downwards

?? The SHFE AL price will be weak while the LME AL price will be relatively strong

20180709前海期貨—有色金屬產業鏈半年報—銅供需格局偏寬松 國內鋁價弱勢難改.pdf