報告摘要

n? 2018年上半年WTI期貨價格繼續單邊漲勢，最高升至74美元之上，漲幅最高時超過24%。

n? 如果美國對伊朗的制裁生效并且被嚴格實施，原油價格往往會在短期內飆漲；如果制裁得不到執行，則會使原油直接回吐此前因為美國退出伊核協議并提出制裁帶來上漲。

n? 如果中美貿易戰的情況繼續惡化，那么區域性甚至全球性的經濟下滑將在所難免，這種悲觀預期會直接反應在市場對原油需求的擔憂上，導致原油下挫。

?? 2018年上半年原油價格回顧

?? 伊核問題：中東勢力制衡的關鍵

?? 中美貿易戰：國內矛盾在國際事務上的延伸

?? 全球供需格局回顧與展望：多方博弈，撲朔迷離

?? 國內貿易與需求展望：貿易結構改變，煉油發展迅猛

?? 2018年下半年展望：上升壓力持續，波動幅度較大

Abstract

n? WTI price rose more than 24% in 1H18, up to USD74/ bbl.

n? If the US sanctions against Iran come into force and are strictly enforced, the price of crude oil would tend to surge in the short term. If the sanctions are not implemented well, crude oil would be sent back to the price level before the US withdrew the nuclear agreement and announced the sanctions.

n? If the situation of the Sino US trade war continues to deteriorate, a regional or even global economic downturn will be unavoidable, and this pessimistic expectation would directly increase the market concern about a loss in oil demand, leading to a decline in oil price.

?? Market review of oil price in 1H18

?? Iran nuclear issue: the key of power balance in middle east

?? The Sino US trade war: domestic affairs stretched to international relations

?? Review and prospect of global supply-demand structure: a multi-game

?? Domestic trade and demand outlook: change of trade structure & Rapid development of oil refining industry

?? Outlook for 2H18: rising pressure & high volatility

20180709前海期貨—原油產業鏈半年報—油價中樞上移 事件決定預期.pdf