報告摘要

n? 主要北方港口煤炭庫存總體維持年內高位，迎峰度夏的旺季預期提高了行業的備貨、囤貨傾向。

n? 迎峰度夏時期，煤炭日耗在70萬噸，但由于庫存充裕，電廠采購壓力不大。

n? 長江中上游地區進入汛期，三峽水庫入庫流量持續增加，長江梯級電站出力將不斷攀升，水電替代效應季節性增強。

n? 動力煤市場具有較強的季節性特征，迎峰度夏和冬季采暖季是兩個波峰，中間則會出現波谷。

?? 上半年走勢回顧

?? 影響因素分析

?? 行情展望與投資策略

Abstract

n? Coal stocks at China's main northern ports remain at high level of the year. Expectation for peak season in the summer increases buyers’ tendency to hoard coal.

n? During the peak summer period, daily consumption of coal is around 700 thousand tons, but due to sufficient coal stocks, major domestic power generation companies’ procurement pressure is not large.

n? As the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River entered the flood season, inflow to the Three Gorges reservoir continued to increase. Power generation of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station is edging up, and the substitution effect of the hydropower increases seasonally.

n? Thermal coal market has strong seasonal characteristics. Usually, there is a trough between summer peak and winter peak.

?

?? Market review in 1H18

?? Analysis of influencing factors

?? Market outlook and strategy recommendation

20180709前海期貨—動力煤產業鏈半年報—動力煤把握季節性投資機會.pdf