報(bào)告摘要

n? 港口庫(kù)存止跌回穩(wěn)，但庫(kù)存能否出現(xiàn)明顯的累積還存在一些變數(shù)。由于近期人民幣持續(xù)貶值，進(jìn)口甲醇的套利空間不斷被壓縮。

n? 三季度傳統(tǒng)下游需求有望恢復(fù)，新興下游開工率有所回升，部分裝置重啟。

n? 市場(chǎng)對(duì)年初的氣荒和環(huán)保問題記憶猶新，但今年并不是去年，行情預(yù)期不宜過度，水滿則溢。

?

?? 上半年走勢(shì)回顧

?? 影響因素分析

?? 行情展望與投資策略

Abstract

n? Port stocks recover slightly, but there are still some uncertainties about whether stocks will accumulate. The arbitrage opportunity for imported methanol has narrowed due to recent depreciation of RMB.

n? Traditional downstream demand is likely to improve in the third quarter, and the new downstream operation rate will increase with some devices restarted.

n? From early this year till now, natural gas shortage and environmental protection have created a bullish mood. However, this year’s situation might not be comparable to that of last year, and a bullish market is not expected to last because the market is overheating.

?

?? Market review in 1H18

?? Analysis of influencing factors

?? Market outlook and investment strategy recommendation

20180709前海期貨—甲醇產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈半年報(bào)—甲醇多空博弈高位震蕩.pdf