20180601前海期貨深度報告：油脂供需邊際趨緊
報告摘要
n??厄爾尼諾令植物油供給下降，全球庫存消費比降至低位。中國植物油繼續處于去庫存進程，庫存壓力不斷降低。
n??2018年豆油面臨大豆供給下滑沖擊，菜油在持續數年去庫存后，目前國儲菜油極為有限且庫存大降九成，棕櫚油產量增速亦趨緩，還可能遭遇馬來西亞樹齡老化帶來單產持續下降的可能，總體上油脂供給將低于市場預期。
n??基于供給不及預期的展望，推薦逢低買入油脂，并可考慮做多油粕比及豆油基差。
???植物油供需格局偏緊
???豆油供給前景不樂觀
???菜油持續去庫存
???單產下滑或拖累棕櫚油供給
???策略推薦
Abstract
n??EI Nino climate reduced the output of vegetable oil and lowered the stocks-to-use ratio. Vegetable oil in China has been in the process of destocking, thus the inventory is declining.
n??Reduction of soybean supply may shrink the output of soybean oil in 2018. Official reserve of rapeseed oil has declined 90% after destocking in past years. The palm oil output also grew slower and per unit yield may decrease caused by Malaysian palm trees’ ageing. In sum, the supply of vegetable oil will be under expectation.
n??Since the supply is under expectation, buying on the dips is recommended. Meanwhile, longing soybean oil-to-meal ratio and soybean oil basis shall be considered.
???Demand-supply of vegetable oil becomes tight
???Unoptimistic prospect of soybean oil supply
???Continuous destocking of rapeseed oil
???Declined yield per acre may drag down the supply of palm oil
???Investment strategy recommendation
